Beowulf, Angelina Jolie and the Futures Market

What is the best way to learn about prediction markets?? Trade future contracts in real money!!!
So as part of our marketing class we get to trade futures on the latest movies and predict their fate at the box office. The rules are straightforward - you write a report detailing your forecast and then you invest in the IEM [Iowa Electronic Markets] .

So this time we have to predict the fate of the latest Angelina Jolie movie - 'Beowulf'. Now, given the budget-size of these movies, one would think that Hollywood bosses have a good idea of what works and what doesn't. [Though history tells us otherwise!]

So I've submitted my report on why I think this movie will be a hit - the stars, the story, the timing of release and of course, the marketing blitz. [I wonder if anyone can put a figure to the interest generated due to Angelina Jolie... isn't that how stars should be getting paid?]

I haven't done too bad on the trading floor, either!
But I'm revising my estimate of the 4-week collections - I predict between $80 and $90 million domestic collections. Most movies make 30%-40% of their 1-month earnings on the first weekend; and given that Thanksgiving weekend will see higher gains at the box office, I think an estimate of $86 million for first 4-week grosses is a good call.

As of now, Beowulf has grossed $56 million in the domestic market and is going strong.
Check out the market quotes and contracts for Beowulf here.
I'll keep you posted!

[I get grades and I get to make money..this is fun!!]